George Bernard Shaw once quipped, “If all economists were laid end to end, they would still not reach a conclusion.”
Theres truth to Shaws commenteconomic forecasting is tricky and imprecise. Everyones crystal ball is hazy, including mine.
But that doesnt mean all economic indicators are created equal (or rather, are equally unreliable). Some indicators are historically and statistically sound:
A recession has never occurred when the Conference Board Leading Economic Index is high and rising, andAn inverted yield curve has successfully predicted the last six recessions.


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