The idea of a Great Moderation had been around in various pieces for some time before the 21st century. The US and even the global economy had experienced a sharp and sustained reduction in volatility across all sorts of metrics. From inflation and employment to general output (GDP), from the mid-1980s forward it seemed as if a new golden economic age had somehow been achieved. Since it had happened and because it was by contemporary accounts an unqualified positive, a great amount of scholarly effort was put forth to identify who might claim authorship of the accomplishment.
The…

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