Archive for the “RealClearMarkets” Category

Articles from RealClearMarkets.

WASHINGTON-Another Labor Day is about to arrive, and once again, organized labor in the United States has little to cheer about.
Unemployment is high, union membership has fallen to 7 percent of the private sector labor force (down from 15% a quarter century earlier). Despite Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, labor is unlikely to win passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, its heavily-lobbied bill to take away the secret ballot in elections for union representation and impose collective bargaining on employers.
And now a new problem looms for some of the larger unions. The…

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Corporate profits are at all-time highs and bond rates in the Treasury market are virtually at record lows. That’s a good combination for stocks, and it helped trigger a 255 point rally in Wednesday’s trading. What’s more, a surprisingly positive read on the ISM August manufacturing report delivered a strong blow to the double-dip recession pessimism that has plagued investors for many months.
Without question, the jobs picture is going to remain cloudy. There’s just too much uncertainty over the economy and the tax-and-regulatory threats coming out of Washington….

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We all know the facts: the economy is weak, job growth is anemic, a whiff of panic is in the air and the powers that be have little to offer in the way of solutions, except for more of the same failed policies.
We also know that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s recent Op-Ed piece in The New York Times, in which he extols the current “economic recovery,” should be #1 on the best seller list - category “Fiction” - or, at the very least, be included in creative writing classes at the nation’s colleges and universities this fall.
And it is apparent to all,…

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The financial struggles of 2008 led to myriad books on why the crack-up occurred, and many have been reviewed here. Andrew Ross Sorkin, a writer for the New York Times, approaches what happened differently.  He has written a very interesting behind-the-scenes account of the people within government and finance who saw the crisis up close.
For those interested in what went down behind closed doors, Sorkin’s Too Big To Fail is essential. Thanks to his global access to the individuals involved, the interested…

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When the Securities and Exchange Commission charged New Jersey with fraud last month for failing to disclose certain fiscal dealings to bond buyers, observers were quick to note that this might be the first of several actions from the agency, which has established a new, 30-person unit to pursue corruption in municipal finance.
But to anyone who follows the business, the SEC’s move must seem the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass. That’s because the undermanned, often-outgunned agency, whose oversight of the muni business is limited by Congress, has launched other initiatives over the…

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With thousands of young college graduates moving in with parents and returning Iraq War veterans facing long-term unemployment, President Obama is scrambling for cover.
Irresponsible spending, largesse for big banks and subsidies for a broken health care system have busted the budget and failed to create jobs.
Economists expect the Labor Department to report on Friday the economy lost another 80,000 jobs in August after shedding 131,000 jobs in July.
Completion of the Census accounts for most of the loss, but the report will demonstrate that rewarding Democratic Party academics with new high…

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Monetary Policy: With the economy seemingly headed for a big slowdown or even a double-dip recession, it’s tempting to demand that the Fed print more money. The only problem is, it won’t work.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke, speaking last week at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole meeting, promised that the Fed would do “all that it can” to keep the economy from falling off the table and to stave off deflation.
But he fell short of promising concrete action. Indeed, he pointedly noted, “central bankers alone cannot solve the world’s economic…

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The Modeled Behavior blog has been taking nominations for the 4% Club, which it describes as “An elite group of economists, pundits, and politicians” who want the Federal Reserve to raise its inflation target from 2%. Its members tend to the left side of the political spectrum, but not exclusively; one of the loudest champions of a higher inflation target is Scott Sumner, a right-of-center economics professor at Bentley University.
Some of the four-percenters have expressed annoyance and consternation about persistent inflation-hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, even in light of a…

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At present there’s quite a lot to criticize President Obama about when it comes to his administration’s economic policies. But with regard to last Friday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision which allegedly points to a weakening economy, the anger should center on what a worthless number GDP is, as opposed to Obama’s admittedly limited worth as an economic strategist.
One editorial that decried the revised number and the President’s surely unfortunate policies noted a big drop in new home sales and weak manufacturing data as symptoms of those policies. It went on…

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The logic of the economic recovery isn’t working — or, at any rate, not well. By that logic, over-borrowed Americans would repay loans and replenish depleted savings, creating a temporary drop in consumer spending and economic activity. But once savings increased and debt declined, consumer buying would strengthen. It would replace the Obama stimulus program. Hiring would improve; the recovery would become self-sustaining.
We’re still waiting. Just last week, economic growth for the second quarter was revised down to a meager 1.6 percent annual rate.
Why is the recovery faltering?…

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On August 27, 2010, the BEA reduced its estimate for 2Q2010 GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.6%. This is far lower than the 3.7% growth seen in 1Q2010, much less the 5.0% growth reported for 4Q2009. Total employment declined by 495,000 during the three months ending in July. Opinion polls show that more Americans believe in UFOs than believe that “stimulus” helped the economy. Yet, despite the mounting evidence, the Administration, most Democrats in Congress, and many economists are clinging to “stimulus” the way Obama once accused some Americans of clinging to guns and…

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“It’s easy to criticize Social Security but how would you fix it?” ask defenders of the most popular middle class entitlement ever invented by a German dictator. Here’s how.
Rest easy, this is not another fruitless rant about privatization. Congress will never get its sticky fingers out of the Social Security cash flow, so there’s little chance that money forcibly taken from employees’ paychecks will end up in individually owned retirement accounts. Privatization will occur only for people smart enough to realize that FICA deductions are just another tax that…

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It’s a bit too early for House Republican leader John Boehner to measure the drapes and pick out new wallpaper. But the Intrade pay-to-play prediction markets are now showing a 76 percent chance of a GOP House takeover in November, along with a 60 percent probability that Republicans will capture at least seven new Senate seats. So Boehner’s lengthy broadside attack on Obamanomics at the City Club of Cleveland this week takes on special meaning. Headlines following the speech were all about Boehner’s call for the resignation of Obama policy generals Larry Summers and Timothy…

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Finance: Warnings about America’s impending financial car wreck are being sounded, loud and clear. The only question is whether those driving the car will slam on the brakes before it’s too late.
No doubt alarmed at the headlong plunge into fiscal irresponsibility by both the White House and the Democrat-dominated Congress, Wall Street is starting to fret that the recklessness could touch off another financial crisis.
On Thursday, Standard & Poor’s said action is needed soon if the U.S. is to keep the much-coveted AAA bond rating that lets the government borrow in…

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WASHINGTON - How well is the stimulus working? This week saw disappointing data in durable goods orders and housing, prompting some economists to predict a double dip recession.
Yet on Tuesday the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a report showing that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 and 3.3 million people in the second quarter of 2010 and lowered unemployment by 0.7 to 1.8 percentage points.
CBO concludes that without the Recovery Act unemployment, which stood at 9.5% in July, might exceed 10% and possibly…

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