Archive for April, 2011

Can the Dodd-Frank Act defeat the natural cyclicality and periodic crises of financial markets?
The answer is: No. This natural cyclicality is far more powerful than the thousands or tens of thousands of pages of regulations, which will be the principal memorial of the act.
The real name of the Dodd-Frank Act should be the “Faith in Bureaucracy Act.” This is a faith I do not share.
This is not because of a lack of intelligence, or diligence, or good intentions, at least much of the time, in the financial regulatory bureaucracies. It is rather because I see no evidence that the human…

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While a great debate rages in states across the country about benefits and pensions for state workers, existing pensions continue to fall short of their funding needs. State pension deficits increased 26% to $1.26 trillion in 2009, according to the Pew Center. Here are some other eye-opening stats from the same report: State retirement systems [...]

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Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner reiterated and defended the “strong-dollar” policy following a speech Tuesday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “Our policy has been and will always be, as long, at least, as I’m in this job, that a strong dollar is in our interest as a country,” Geithner said in response [...]

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China’s economy will be bigger than the U.S. economy by 2016, says the IMF, using a special measure of economic size called “purchasing price parity.” Measured in dollars, the U.S. GDP will still be 70% bigger than China’s by then, but the trend is unmistakable: At some point, barring a wreck of China’s economic freight [...]

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Senator Al Franken (D-MN) has called upon Apple and Google to participate in a hearing with the Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology and the Law in order to discuss consumer privacy. The hearing will take place on May 10 in Washington, where witnesses from the US Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, Center for Democracy and Technology, and others will talk about what the latest mobile technology means for privacy and the law.




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Europe’s sovereign debt crisis just got a bit bleaker today. Both Greece and Portugal’s 2010 budget deficits came in worse than expected. Greece was expected to ring up a deficit equaling 9.4% of gross domestic product. But when the finally tally was in, the country’s actual deficit totaled 10.5% of GDP, according to Eurostat, Europe’s [...]

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Texas Congressman Ron Paul is once again throwing his hat into the Presidential race. The conservative Republican will officially announce he’s created an exploratory committee at an event later today in Iowa. Paul who ran in 1988 and in 2008, is a darling of the Tea Party and has a very loyal, albeit small, group [...]

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Less than a year after the ‘Stuxnet’ virus hit its nuclear facilities, Iranian officials said Monday the nation is facing another cyber-attack. Gholam Reza Jalali, the head of an Iranian military unit in charge of combating sabotage, said it discovered an “espionage virus,” which he called “Stars,” the AP reports. For anyone worried about Iran’s [...]

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image I just finished reading The Secrets of Power Negotiating by Roger Dawson and as Tim Ferriss says in Four Hour Working Week “if you only read one book about negotiating, make it this one”.

The first reason I like this book is Roger’s solution driven approach to negotiations.  Most deals are complicated and there are many elements that can be traded off against each other if the negotiators are skilled enough to listen and find out what is important to the other side.  As Roger notes repeatedly throughout the book there may be concessions you can make which cost you little or nothing but are meaningful for the other side.  In-experienced negotiators, however, are more prone to getting focused on a single issue (often price) which leads to conflict and occasionally deadlock and lost deals.

In the context of venture capital deals the valuation of the company is always important, but there are a number of other elements which are material and where there is often more room for each side to make easy concessions.  The most common of these are liquidation preference, anti-dilution rights, size of the option pool, good leaver/bad leaver, and provisions determining the balance of control between investor and the company post transaction.

When a VC invests in a company/entrepreneur it is often likened to a marriage and it is very important that the relationship doesn’t get off to a bad start with acrimonious negotiations over deal terms.  It is thus more important than in most negotiations that both sides work hard to find the white spaces that form the basis of a happy agreement rather than approach discussions as a zero sum game.

As an aside, one of the small things that Roger advocates is always leaving the other side happy, and he offers a number of tips for doing so.

The second reason I like Roger’s book is that it is full of actionable recommendations for getting the best deal available whilst maximising the chances of the negotiations reaching a harmonious conclusion.  They are too numerous to list here in full but in they group into:

  • Ways to maintain flexibility in your position and avoid deadlock – e.g. NEVER go too quickly to your best offer as problems will follow if the other side then tries to negotiate you down further.  A common mistake is to take the approach of cutting straight to a ‘fair’ position which leaves little room for manoeuvre if the other side has a different idea of what ‘fair’ is.  Better to start with a more extreme position and then get to know how your opposite number thinks.
  • Tools to help you better understand the other side (and yourself) – these range from questions to ask (e.g. always ask for more), to descriptions of different national negotiating styles and analysis of the different types of power negotiators can hold (e.g. power to reward).

Finally, the book is extremely well written.  It is an easy read, key concepts are referred back to multiple times as the book progresses, making them easy to remember, and it is often humorous.

Discussions between experienced negotiators are a bit like a game of chess.  The two sides enjoy pitting their wits against each other and understanding and countering the tricks and tools that the other side employs and if there is space for an agreement then the two sides will find it.  It isn’t easy for most people to become experienced negotiators though, they don’t get that many chances to practice and when they do the situation is often loaded with too much significance for it to be a good learning experience.  This book can help anyone to get up the learning curve more quickly and reduce the chances of a deal that could have been great getting ruined by poorly conducted negotiations.

I have had two negotiations in the last six months that were a real pleasure, one over a compensation package and one over deal terms.  Each time both sides pushed hard and discussions were occasionally tense and we ended up with a fair deal that everyone was happy with, and I also finished the discussions with more respect for the other side than when I had started (good negotiating skills are an asset to every business).  I hope that more of my negotiations in the future will be like those.

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Netflix, the streaming-video and DVD-rental-by-mail giant, said that its profit soared 88 percent in the first quarter as it added 3.6 million subscribers globally. But the company’s shares were battered in after-hours trading, falling 5 percent after the company projected that its profits next quarter wouldn’t likely be as high as Wall Street traders hoped for.




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The crucial question facing the United States is whether the current path of federal expenditure is vital to our economic well-being. If so, then the U.S. faces a grim economic future. This path implies an exploding national debt, and the taxation necessary to tame the debt would cripple economic growth. The U.S. would thus appear to have no good policy choices.The right view of all the expenditure is different, however; the U.S. can slash it with minimal adverse effects. Many cuts, in fact, improve economic performance and thus make sense independent of the fiscal outlook. Here are some…

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To read economic and political commentary with any kind of frequency is to be bombarded daily - and hourly for that matter - with breathy articles about a United States groaning under deficits that surely signal bankruptcy, Social Security checks that eventually won’t clear, and of course a looming financial crisis. A recent New York Times column by noted deficit scold David Stockman naturally referenced America’s “desperate” financial situation.
Much of this commentary is well written, it’s certainly popular, but it’s also total nonsense.
To understand why we…

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The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline stands at $3.86 — more than 30 cents higher than just one month ago, according to AAA’s fuel gauge report. In an effort to combat rising prices, and presumably sway public opinion, President Obama last Thursday tasked the Justice Department with investigating the oil markets [...]

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As you’ve probably heard by now, this is shaping up to be a landmark week for the Fed, which holds a two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday. In addition to Ben Bernanke’s first-ever press conference on Wednesday, the fate of the Fed’s quantitative easing program is likely be decided at this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed’s [...]

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Remember this the next time you plug in your Sega Genesis for some throwback gameplay: al-Qaida once wanted to set off bombs concealed in your game cartridges. That’s just one of the experimental techniques in mayhem, revealed by WikiLeaks in its latest document dump.




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